Thanks to their improbable victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Denver Broncos will travel to Foxboro to challenge the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs on Saturday. In week 15 of the regular season, the Patriots defeated the Broncos in Denver 41-23. The loss snapped the Broncos remarkable six game winning streak during which the team pulled off one fourth quarter comeback victory after another, and led to their three game losing streak on the heels of which the team backed into the postseason.
In the first matchup, the Broncos dominated the game early before the Patriots took control late in the first half and spread the margin of victory down the stretch. Who will win the rematch? How will it play out? Will Broncos' quarterback Tim Tebow be able to make plays in the passing game as he was against the Steelers? Obviously I don't know the answers to these questions, and neither does anyone else. But as I am already salivating for Saturday night to arrive, I thought I'd explore some of my musings about what might happen.
Who should win?
The Patriots are a heavy favorite, and they should be. They are the more talented, experienced team. They've been running the same offensive system for years while Denver's offense is still very much a work in progress. New England has a chance to jump on the Broncos early, stick their feet on their throats and push until the game is over. Tom Brady showed in the first matchup that he can manipulate the Broncos' defense, especially with his two elite weapons at the tight end position.
In the first matchup, the Broncos showed that they can dominate New England's defense with their running game, and Tebow had one of his more impressive performances throwing the football, though neither proved to be enough. Their defense held strong early in the game, but couldn't make stops as it progressed. For the Broncos to have a chance, plays will need to be made on both sides of the ball, from start to finish. They'll need to play clean - without turnovers and limiting penalties - and they'll likely need a few breaks/bounces of the ball to go their way - though it is worth noting that the Broncos beat the Steelers without catching any breaks and despite being on the receiving end of poor officiating.
Who's feeling the pressure?
Emotion may be an integral factor in this game. The Broncos come in riding high from last week's upset victory. Some might caution against this, but I think carrying over that emotion is exactly what they need to do. They need to play frenzied, as if they're foaming at the mouth - use that fire to overwhelm the typically cool and collected Patriots. And no player needs to be fired up more than Tim Tebow. I've been watching Tebow religously - pun intended - since his freshman year at Florida. He's at his best when he's jacked up, when he's angry - the Patriots won't like him when he's angry.
Conversely, the Patriots enter the game carrying the weight of embarrassing playoff losses in back-to-back seasons. They need to forget their past failures and be the cool assassins that they are. They can't allow the pressure to overwhelm them and deflect their focus from the team across the field - the Broncos are at their most dangerous when they're being overlooked. Fans and radio hosts in New England are a little too arrogant about this game being a lock - clearly overcompensating for their lack of confidence. The Patriots need to make sure that attitude remains in the media and not in the locker room.
What must each team do?
From a schematic standpoint, the Patriots need to do what they do offensively. The should try to run up the middle on occassion, where the Broncos have played well but are undersized. And they should use their short passing game to spread the field horizontally, creating windows for Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez. In the second half of the previous matchup the Patriots controlled the pace of the game doing just that, and there's no reason they can't do the same.
Defensively, New England should scheme to give Tebow and the Broncos multiple looks. Settling into one defense allows Tebow to feel comfortable and make plays freely. Keeping him guessing keeps the offense guessing, negating both big plays and sustained drives. Much has been said of Tebow's low completion percentage this season, but the primary reason for it is his lack of experience throwing many of the routes the Broncos run. It's not that he's missing his receivers or his spots, it's that he throws to different spots than his receivers run to at times.
While seemingly every football analyst discusses what opposing teams need to do to defend the Broncos' option game at length, the truth is that Denver only runs option plays four or fives times a game. Opposing defensive ends need to be disciplined, but beyond that, it's far more important for New England to be able to stop the Broncos' traditional runs, including designed runs for Tebow.
For the Broncos, their defense needs to get stops and force mistakes. To do so, it must generate a pass rush and bring pressure up the middle at Tom Brady. It must disrupt his rhythm much the same way Baltimore and New York have disrupted his rhythm in the Patriots' prior playoff defeats. They cannot allow New England's receivers to run free in the middle of the field. They must be physical and knock guys off their routes at the line of scrimmage. Denver does have a significant advantage in athleticism in this contest, and it needs to use that advantage for force a turnover or make a play in the return game.
On offense, it's not all about Tebow but it is. What that means is that the Broncos' coaches must call plays that allow the offense to be successful. They need to use WR screens to pick up short gains to supplement the run game. Tebow needs to complete intermediate passes, especially over the middle of the field, to back off New England's linebackers and pull up New England's safeties, opening up both running lanes and deep passes simultaneously.
The Broncos cannot make mistakes offensively. There's no harm in punting, but they need to avoid three-and-out possessions and keep the Patriots' defense on the field. They need to score enough points to keep the game within a score or two throughout - if they fall behind by more than that New England will have forced them out of character.
Who do I want to win?
I like the Patriots. I am a Tom Brady fan and a Bill Belichick fan. I admire some of their players, especially Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Vince Wilfork. I enjoy that Belichick finds ways to get the most out of his players, even if that means putting a wide receiver at defensive back. But not since I was a kid and first fell in love with sports have I enjoyed watching an athlete perform as much as I enjoy watching Tim Tebow. I am rooting for him to be a success in the NFL and I'll be rooting for his season to continue on Saturday night. I like the character of this Broncos team and am excited by their young talent, such as Von Miller and Demaryius Thomas, and I prefer not to wait for next fall to watch them play more.
Who will win?
Ultimately, I think the Broncos can hang with the Patriots and keep the game within reach. But I think New England is too good and too experienced to be upset again in the postseason, this way and by this team. This is a matchup we can look forward to seeing again in the coming years. New England will surely remain among the league's best, and Tebow and the Broncos aren't going away - they've found their quarterback, he's good and he's going to be really good.
The Broncos have been a great story - the best in the NFL this year - but this year, in this chapter, midnight looms. Still, part of me is hesitant to doubt this team, and especially its star quarterback. Despite what I think and what I know, there's a part of me that believes Tebow and the Broncos can stop time, delay the strike of midnight once more. It's a part of me that sports has not evoked in quite some time, and it's a part of me I'm glad has returned. Regardless of the outcome on Saturday night, Tim Tebow has brought an element of faith back into my life, and for that reason this season will forever be a success for the Denver Broncos.
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